Four Futures That The Pandemic Can Leave
What will the world be like tomorrow, once covid-19 has passed? But what if the pandemic were never eradicated, what would happen? This is what a group of scientists has tried to predict, in order to prepare society for what is to come . The study, published in the journal JAMA , leaves four possible scenarios of what life will be like in the medium term. From the total eradication of the virus, to the loss of control, through seasonality and cohabitation.
With the majority of more advanced countries with a high vaccination rate that is helping to reduce the cases of covid-19, however the reluctance of some sectors to be inoculated, the variants that have emerged as well as that the doses are still difficult to reach countries most vulnerable, they do not finish doubling the spear in the fight against the coronavirus . A race to end a pandemic that is over a year and a half old and that has completely changed the society of the 21st century.
But, looking to the future and how covid-19 will be taken into account, there are still many uncertainties . Possible scenarios that a group of researchers have tried to put on the table with a study that takes into account from the worst of events to an unbeatable future.
The virus will be totally eliminated
A world, in the latter case, in which the coronavirus would no longer exist. 100% eradicated, however the chances of this happening are almost 0 . And it is that various experts in the field consider that the virus will never completely disappear, because there are conditions such as the impossibility of vaccinating everyone, the aforementioned variants or the situation of the poorest countries that will always leave a minimum loophole of the coronavirus.
“To eradicate it, it would be necessary for both the immunity derived from the vaccine and that derived from the infection to be very effective, long-lasting, capable of preventing secondary transmission and reinfection, and protecting against all types of present and future viral variants ,” says the study to enforce the impossibility of zero cases.
Two scenarios living with covid-19
For this reason, the fact that it is seasonal or cohabits with the coronavirus becomes more powerful . The two most probable scenarios in which the first of the cases would arise as an endemic virus , either it exists only in one place in the world or affects under certain weather conditions.
For its part, the case of cohabiting with it would be very similar to the seasonal one and it is the thesis recently refuted by the Spanish virologist Margarita del Val . “An endemic state can arrive once most people are no longer immunologically naive , that is, they have already been vaccinated or infected once. Thus, when they are exposed and become infected again in the future, they are likely to they will be protected from severe forms of the disease, “the study remarks.
Catastrophe, the coronavirus will never go away
However, there is a fourth scenario where the world would collapse. It is the so-called conflagration and it would make the covid-19 be in a constant way in society. “The virus would have continual opportunities to replicate and adapt to evade natural and vaccine-derived immune responses. Among vaccinated populations, infections may continue to arise periodically due to incomplete vaccine-derived immunity, decreased efficacy, or immunodeficiencies. mechanisms for the evasion of new viral variants, “says the investigation.
Eradication, seasonality, cohabitation and collapse. Four possible scenarios for the world that leaves the covid-19 and against which it is necessary to be cautious. All in order not to reach the most catastrophic and that would make the current restrictions and measures constant, with endless cases throughout the planet.